A Lose-Lose Outcome

It is easy to look at the end-users and realize why we’d all be upset. The TV Pack is nothing like it was originally anticipated it would be, and there is no official channel, support, or upgrade path for anyone other than to buy a new PC. Who wants to buy a new PC just to get a software update?

Microsoft’s partners are also losing out on this one. I personally had been waiting for DirecTV support and was ready to switch to satellite as soon as it arrived. It would have been really nice to have a more integrated fully-digital solution, but it looks like I won’t be switching now. All the issues surrounding CableCard will probably be ironed out by the time DirecTV is on Media Center, or Duke Nukem Forever comes out.

You might think that OEMs would appreciate being the only channel to get the new software bits, but how many people are going to trust Microsoft or an OEM with supporting any product they buy? It’s hardly an incentive to buy that new Windows Vista machine you’ve heard about in the ads. In my book Media Center is a complete lame duck now that will never flourish.

It’s Apple’s Move Now

This also further illustrates the commonly held view that people should just wait for Windows 7 because that is exactly what these actions are saying. While we wait for Windows 7 Microsoft is just going to leave the door gaping open for Apple to come in and steal the digital living room. Honestly, even AppleTV’s history hasn’t been as bad as Media Center’s.

Keep in mind, I actually likes Vista and Media Center. Dictating moves like this to your users is straight out of Apple’s playbook. I hate it when they do it, and I hate it when Microsoft does it too. I just can’t believe how many of the usual sources aren’t running with this story.

Overall I find the concept, and to a large extent the execution, of VMC to be awesome. Here are some the strengths of VMC:

• No DVR fees to the cable company (or Tivo)
• Comes built into Vista
• Easily share the DVR through extenders (of which there is already a huge base of Xbox 360s)
• Top notch user interface (most of the time)
• Portable recordings

I especially like that the recordings are just files that I can play on my laptop or stream over the Internet (via Orb) when I travel. You can also easily sync and automatically transcode recordings to WMP-compatible media players, Zunes, and even Windows Mobile devices. I do wish they’d develop/release a softsled (software-based extender) though.

Vista Media Center TV Pack

Microsoft are set to announce the “Vista Media Center TV Pack” formerly codenamed Fiji at next month’s CEDIA Expo. It will bring welcomed features such as proper native QAM support and heterogeneous tuner support; both of which I’ve been waiting for. While many were expecting features such as support for H.264 and DirecTV, and the ability to have widescreen thumbnails, no such features are showing up in tester’s hands. Honestly, overall it is a complete disappointment. Not just because of the software, it is the delivery too.

Epic Fail

It gets ugly when you start to look at how you can get some TV Pack goodness for yourself. First problem, you can’t upgrade to it. Apparently a fresh install is required; just what I want to do with a system that is setup how I like it. Second, it is only available through OEMs! But wait it gets worse. Third, all the OEMs have said they are only planning on supplying the TV Pack with new computers.

Let me get this straight, so because I bought and installed Vista myself, a very common scenario for most current media center users, I don’t get access to a key update to an included component of the OS? And Even if I had bought my HTPC through an OEM, they aren’t going to support the product further? Who is making these decisions and how do they sound right to them? As if I didn’t feel like my copy of Vista Ultimate wasn’t completely lacking anything Ultimate about it already.

It must be awful to be one of the developers working on Media Center at Microsoft. So much work into a great product only to have it destroyed in the marketplace due to bad business decisions. The many VMC users out there are pretty loyal but we will only take so much. It is like we are continually waiting for the next installment to really make it all right (satellite support, good digital cable support, broad codec support, softsled, built-in place shifting, etc). Microsoft is lucky my DVR options are so bad to begin with, but that won’t last forever.

Just look at their 1.0 product short comings that a subsequent version fixed:

• iPod: firewire only, no iTunes for Windows, no service to replace old batteries, mechanical scroll wheel
• iPhone: no 3G, no GPS, no third-party software, no contacts search, no corporate e-mail/contacts/calendar sync, 4GB model, couldn’t easily use third—party headphones, no music ringtones, etc
• iPod Touch: pretty much the same list as the iPhone but you have to pay for each update even though they are free for the iPhone and new iPod Touches
• AppleTV: couldn’t purchase or download content on the AppleTV, measly 40GB hard drive, no support for Dolby Digital 5.1, had to be connected to a computer to do anything, apparently people are still unhappy with the state of AppleTV
• Mac OS X: launch version had almost zero software, ran very slowly, no DVD playback, no CD burning, no Windows/Samba file-sharing, no built-in search
• MacBook: palm rest discoloration, cracking plastic, low quality 6-bit LCD panels, you could only order it with 512MB of RAM, had draft-N wireless support but you had to pay $5 to use it, excessive heat made Apple label it a notebook instead of a laptop (because it is too hot for your lap apparently)
• And now MobileMe: “1%” of users couldn’t access their mail for weeks (as of this writing I’ve seen reports that some still can’t), Apple’s idea of PUSH technology isn’t actually a PUSH at all, exchange contact and calendars don’t sync, and now they are adding MobileMe software onto non-MobileMe users’ PC via iTunes without asking or even telling them

Basically, within a year or two of each product coming out a new revision/version comes out that fixes the glaring bugs and notably missing features, and sometimes even costs less. If you ask me, it really does seem like 1.0 is more of a paid public beta test for Apple. The thing that amazes me is how they can get their users to forget about all of this. That is some amazing marketing…

Unreasonable Assumption: Regulators Could Fix This

It may be that I just don’t love standards bodies or government interference but I really doubt that they are the solution to inconsistent HD picture quality. Just look at the bang up job ATSC did in defining what HDTV would be in the first place.

They couldn’t even settle on whether HD would be interlaced (1080i) or not (720p), and in my humble opinion interlacing really should have been left behind. It has to be by far the worse form of video “compression” still in use today; it is 1940s era tech after all.

ATSC never foresaw a time (read: about 2006) when almost all HDTVs would be natively progressive scan, and that most would have terrible deinterlacing engines. It quickly became obvious in the television marketplace that 1080i was no good so now we have a plethora of “true HD” 1080p displays with literally zero broadcast programming in that format. They of course made the 1080i/720p compromise for bandwidth reasons, but a more modern codec (any MPEG-4 variant or VC-1) can easily handle 1080p given the same bandwidth as an MPEG-2 1080i stream.

Consumers’ Increasing Choices

Here is the real reason regulators shouldn’t be invovled: consumers have choices for their content delivery. The standards for displays are good enough that without switching your HDTV you can get HD programming via over-the-air, DirecTV, Dish, cable, fiber optic (FiOS), or even DSL (U-verse) now. Sure you probably don’t have all six options in one location but you probably have at least three, maybe four. New IP-based download services (Xbox Live, Amazon, iTunes, etc) are creating even more options too.

When I moved to Indiana my cable provider at the time offered terrible HD service. There were very few HD channels, and many shows that I used to watch in HD were broadcast in letterboxed 480p on the “HD” channel! Guess what? I started looking at what DirecTV and Dish were offering. My cable provider added some HD channels and stopped down converting their HD shows before I pulled the trigger though.

The bottom line is, I could have gone elsewhere. DirecTV is already moving to MPEG-4 AVC (H.264) and they can increase bandwidth by adding additional satellites. Consequently their HD seem to be particularly good, especially compared to certain cable companies. To top it off, almost anyone in North America can get DirecTV. I will probably switch as soon as Media Center’s DirecTV support comes out.

If (and that is a huge “if” for most people) people really care about getting better HD picture quality they will switch. Which will put pressure on the low quality providers to improve. We don’t need regulators telling us what does and doesn’t look acceptable. Leave the hard standards for the displays not the content delivery. We really won’t want to be stuck with only MPEG-2 streams a decade or two from now.

Increase Visibility

One of the biggest problems I believe AmazonMP3 is facing is that even amongst people who buy music online (mostly iTunes users) most haven’t ever heard of it. Anytime I mention AmazonMP3 to a friend of mine they are surprised that such a service even exists; they thought iTunes was the only option.

The value proposition is really strong for Amazon MP3: no DRM, files are compatible with all MP3 players, a large selection of music, a familiar company that most people already do business with, and prices that are generally lower than the competition. All of that doesn’t matter if you don’t know about it though.

Bundle With Other Amazon Products

Amazon should bundle MP3 downloads with every iPod or MP3 player. Three of the top six selling MP3 players aren’t iPods so they don’t have any default store, and seventeen of the top one-hundred selling electronics are MP3 players; it is a great opportunity to cross-sell.

They could vary the number of included tracks based of the price of the product. So the bargain $35 MP3 player might only come with two or three songs while a high end $500 MP3 player could come with an album or two; depending on the margins of course. This would be a differentiating factor versus other online stores for MP3 players, and would introduce most of these users to AmazonMP3 right off the bat. Amazon could even include free songs with other devices that play MP3s but aren’t “MP3 Players” such as cell phones, portable GPS units, game consoles, or even computers.

They should make MP3 purchases count toward free “Super Saver Shipping” and highlight it to certain users too. I know I would buy a few tracks to push my order over $25 instead of hunting down some cheap book or a 24-pack of pens.

Brick And Mortar

I think they need to go after the brick and mortar establishments as well. They could be selling AmazonMP3 gift cards at electronics stores, big box retailers, and supermarkets just like iTunes does. Although the cards would say AmazonMP3 they really should be redeemable for any purchase at Amazon.com. They could also extend the bundling concept to select retailers to include AmazonMP3 tracks with MP3 players. Amazon already has a commercial partnership with Target so why not start there?

What do you think? Would some legal free tunes entice you to buy an MP3 player at a certain store? Do you think you’d actually redeem the free MP3 tracks, and even make a future purchase?

In my humble opinion I think it is foolish to disregard the effects of piracy with the argument that the people who share copy pirate (argh me maties!) wouldn’t pay anyway. This argument isn’t just used for Microsoft software either, it is a common argument used with pirated music and PC gaming as well.

Copyright

In each example it really boils down to copyright though. The dictionary defines copyright as “A grant of an exclusive right to produce or sell a book, motion picture, work of art, musical composition, software, or similar product during a specified period of time.” (emphasis added)

It is the copyright holder’s exclusive right to choose how their work is distributed. For some reason, whether it is Microsoft or Metallica there are people who think that these exclusive rights are somehow irrelevant because they already made their money. Copyright holders really shouldn’t have to prove that the piracy of their works (whether proprietary or open-source/GPL/etc) could have been turned into actual sales; that is beside the point.

A Different Kind of MSN

Without taking away from what I have already said, I don’t know why Microsoft chooses (it is their choice after all) to be so aggressive on their licensing enforcement and policies. For me, it all points towards Metcalf’s law on network effects. The value of the Microsoft “network” or ecosystem of software is arguably highest when everyone (paying customers and pirates) uses it.

There is a segment of users, especially in certain regions, who will never pay much or anything for their software; and not because they care about open-source or libre software. There could be many reasons why they don’t care to pay, but the reasons don’t really matter. As Microsoft really pushes their pricing and licensing enforcement, they will push these users toward free OSes like Ubuntu (or other Linux distros).

Ultimately this will diminish the value of the Microsoft “network” and increase the value of the alternatives. Indeed a big part of the reason why Linux (or even Mac to a lesser extent) isn’t more popular (i.e. valuable) on the desktop is that the network is too small.

Microsoft’s time and money could be better spent exploring reduced pricing in various regions; and no, a gimped “starter edition” doesn’t count. Yes, this would open up gray-market issues, but I’d rather deal with some people not paying the right price than some people not paying at all, or even worse, some not even using the software.

Note: I am not in any way condoning or justifying piracy.

World of Warcraft

An article I caught yesterday about three statistics that lie got me thinking about the PC gaming business. It seems pretty popular these days to argue over whether PC gaming is dead/dying or not, and invariably someone on the pro-PC side makes some comment to the effect of “PC gaming is still doing great, look at World of Warcraft!”

I won’t say that PC gaming is dead (it isn’t doing very well relative to the rest of the video game industry IMO though), but using WoW as an example is a joke. It is the very definition of a statistical outlier. How many PC games make even 5% as much money as WoW? Very, very, few. It is just as foolish as saying that high gas prices aren’t hurting car companies because Honda had a good quarter, even though Ford, GM, Chrysler, and even Toyota are doing bad.

Netflix and Microsoft

Next up is Netflix streaming to Media Center and/or the Xbox 360. I just don’t get why Netflix and Microsoft aren’t being very aggressive in this arena. It is a win-win for both companies, and not that difficult technically. After all, homebrew hackers have made software that can do it.

Think about it, on the technical side Netflix is already using Microsoft’s DRM and codecs which VMC (Vista Media Center) and the 360 already support. On the marketing side of things it would allow Netflix to really push their way onto peoples’ TVs over the Internet, and would give them something that their main rival Blockbuster could not match.

From Microsoft’s side, they would have the only console that can do Netflix. I’m sure some Microsofties would worry that the Xbox Live Video Store would be hurt by this, but I’d bet that wouldn’t generally be the case. First of all, most of the fair on Netflix’s Watch Now is older less popular films/shows, and Xbox Live has mostly new releases and current shows. Second, it could actually increase people’s use of their 360 as a TV/movie device. As people start using their Xbox for TV/movies (via Netflix) more often, I’m sure they’ll think about renting/buying that new movie in HD from Xbox Live.

Even without Microsoft’s approval I’m pretty sure Netflix could do it via some proxy software that would serve up UPnP streams. Videos from Vongo, CinemaNow, and Amazon Unbox all play over UPnP on an Xbox 360 because they use Microsoft’s DRM/codecs. There is no reason it shouldn’t work.

The Fastest Mac Evar!

I don’t know, maybe it is just me getting AMF (Apple Marketing Fatigue), but they need to stop with the “Fastest/Best/Super-est Mac/iPhone/OS X/Single-Button-Mouse Ever” crap. Who really cares? Isn’t it a given that the new model of Apple’s fastest computer would be faster than the old one? What would people say if Dell said “The fastest Inspiron ever”?

It just seems so juvenile (along with their ads). Honestly I hear more imaginative declarations of superiority from the dregs of the Xbox Live community.